Tell me I’m not the only one who thinks Tiger Woods will NOT win the PGA Championship this week at Baltusrol. Surely, there must be a few other “pessimists’’ who feel defending champ Vijay Singh and a few other guys might have a shot.
Obviously, the gambling world does not agree. From London to Las Vegas, the betting lines have installed Woods anywhere from 5-to-2 to even money. Singh? He’s next-best, a distant 10-to-1 down the chart.
In golf, this is the equivalent of Secretariat going off at 1-to-10, which he did in 1973 when he won the Belmont en route to the Triple Crown. I say that because “Big Red’’ only had to beat four rivals in the Belmont (really, just one: Sham), and Tiger probably has 10 times that number to deal with in the PGA.
Arguably, Woods was running more like Secretariat back in 2000 and 2001, when he captured the “calendar slam’’ -- the 2000 U.S. Open, British Open and PGA, and the 2001 Masters. And if this was the same man-eating Tiger, he’d probably be a lock this week.
Naturally, not everyone agrees. For instance, the guy Tiger is chasing in the majors column, Jack Nicklaus, had this thought following Woods’ win at the British.
“I have to say, this is the best I’ve ever seen Tiger swing,’’ said Nicklaus, whose 18 major titles are eight wins clear of Woods. “Yeah, I’d say he’s back. Definitely.’’
Perhaps. But there others besides myself who claim Hank Haney has not resurrected the same game in Woods that Butch Harmon once made dead-solid perfect. Yes, the parts are similar -- the length, for sure -- but it’s not as tight and, ultimately, bullet-proof.
There also remains an Achilles’ heal, even if putting does have little to do with the Tiger’s feet.
Or have you forgotten Woods’ three-putts on the final two holes of the Masters, and several short ones that left him tied for second at the U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2? Even his win at the British Open at St. Andrews had a few noticeable hiccups on the greens.
There are two other key factors as to why Woods might not hoist the Wannamaker Trophy come Sunday: Baltusrol playing to a par of 70, and the nature of the PGA.
At nearly 7,400 yards, Baltusrol would seem to overwhelmingly favor Tiger except Woods rarely plays well on par-70s. In fact, only one of his 10 wins in the majors came on a par-70 -- the 2002 U.S. Open at Bethpage Black. Eight of the other nine have come on par-72s, and one on a par-71 (2000 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach).
Translated: Tiger misses those two-shot par-5s when they’re not in the loop.
As for he PGA, it has a history of one-hit wonders when it comes to the majors. That list includes Shaun Micheel, Rich Beem, David Toms, Davis Love III, Mark Brooks and Steve Elkington in the past 10 years. But it’s a group that goes much deeper, when players like Paul Azinger, Jeff Sluman, Wayne Grady, Bob Tway and Hal Sutton are factored in.
So why all the hype at the PGA this week about the “Big One’’ instead of the “Big Five,’’ as was the case a year ago when Singh, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson and Retief Goosen were seemingly everywhere during the end of Woods’ zero-for-10 slump in the majors? Well, the other four haven’t sniffed it lately on the game’s bigger stages.
Singh has putted poorly, finishing dead last in that category at both the Masters and U.S. Open. Had he rolled the rock even half-way decent, he might have done better than a tie for fifth and a tie for sixth, respectively. And he was horrendous with the short stick in the final round at St. Andrews, where he also tied for fifth.
Els, who won’t play in the PGA for the first time since 1991 due to a knee injury, has had a year to forget. That the “Big Easy’’ was a nonfactor in the majors this season (his best a tie for 15 th at the U.S. Open), and that has only fanned the flames for Woods.
Mickelson and Goosen also have contributed to Tiger’s re-emergence. Both had their best showing early at the Masters (Goosen T3, Mickelson 10 th), even if the Goose did have the 54-hole lead by three strokes at Pinehurst before laying an egg (81) that dumped him into a tie for 11 th place.
Woods, meanwhile, is set to go where no other modern-day player has ever gone before. Hard as it seems to believe, nobody -- not Nicklaus, Arnold Palmer, Gary Player, Lee Trevino, Tom Watson, etc. -- has ever won the Masters, British Open and PGA in the same year. And if Woods should post three wins and a runner-up, that, too, might be a new standard in the majors, although Ben Hogan also won three in 1953, the year he failed to get home in time to play in the PGA.
Certainly, it could happen. And if it does, I’ll be the first in line to proclaim that I was wrong.
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